An Caution for Keir Starmer from His Own Past: If You're Not Bold on Brexit and Europe, His Labour Rivals Might Be.
Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018
This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
